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Now in paperback, bestselling author Victor Niederhoffer brings us the inside information on the markets, psychology, science, and investing.$ Y% h: N( J( G0 ~3 T7 y! [
内容简介 R" v7 H! Q+ U7 f3 F1 r( L$ r
Author and renowned speculator of the best-selling investment classic, Education of a Speculator, and moneycentral.om co-columnist Laurel Kenner examine the increasingly volatile and noisy market to see what works in trading.Niederhoffer and Kenner present lessons from the 21st century fray and uncover the many ways that investors lose money and proffer strategies for profiting in deep waters where many an unseen danger lurks.From politics and risk to surviving and science, Practical Speculation calls on science as it's guide to present a "periodic table of investing," and along the way looks at the cult of the bear, social and economic trends in baseball, and the market ecosystem.Practical Speculation ultimately presents important approaches to risk, speculation, and investing in an uncertain world.
4 [5 X2 r+ h5 ?" K; r: q 作者简介
3 }/ {3 }0 J1 n& g R2 E0 q, V, G9 I Victor Niederhoffer, (Weston, CT) is a private trader.Through 1996 he ran a hugely successful futures trading firm that had an annual return of over 30%.His staggering and stellar performance over 15 years made market history.In Oct.1997 he was forced to close his fund due to heavy losses.Prior to that, Niederhoffer had one of the longest, most successful track records of any hedge fund manager.Since Oct.1997, Niederhoffer has regrouped and is now back trading for himself and a few private investors.1999 was one of his best years ever.In addition, he writes a daily column for www.ordlyinvestor.om and a weekly column for msn moneycentral.Laurel Kenner (New York, NY) is a trader and financial journalist.She was the U.stock market editor at Bloomberg News.Ms.Kenner began her career in 1984 as a newspaper reporter in Southern California, writing about politics and land planning.In 1989, she moved to business reporting, and wrote a series of award-winning stories on aerospace.?4 y3 F7 E0 s) ]
目录
7 T1 t. i5 g6 [4 w( R0 `& p Praise
, {6 Y' e' T- g X Title Page
( R5 c* B* x! X8 ^4 K: W8 X6 _1 J Copyright Page
$ m7 A# m1 v) x Epigraph
' S3 A2 u( w6 D Acknowledgments. p1 H9 W$ u+ Y+ G) e" o; U5 ]. X! j
Introduction, g) m3 ~- E2 A" l
To Overwhelming Applause
' v3 N/ W4 Z6 C9 y The Framework for This Book
& Y; R8 s% A" B3 { Explanation of Icons
$ H! U9 `0 B+ G4 E Part One - Mumbo Jumbo and Moonshine, d! i/ H2 j$ @8 H8 T/ K: _
Chapter 1 - THE MEME! D% f; L+ n; A9 v, \* Y; `* {( I
Chapter 2 - EARNINGS PROPAGANDA
' Y1 Y. Y' V# y$ @: e: C Fuzzy Measures
" n) Z! {' Q: \, L/ v/ M Testing the Beliefs) M0 x9 j! @* s7 C, H- p
Irrational Ratios
3 P# \/ l. E4 Y) G6 Z% H6 \" S+ J Student Questioner* V1 [0 i& M% @) d$ c; c% J( J
How Earnings Propaganda Works2 F; [ R5 T- l+ R" f9 z
Why Do the Beliefs Persist?% ^* K1 v4 s. ^9 ~& V
The Escalation of Hide-and-Seek
3 G, |( g- H4 }. k5 b Wall Street's Cheery Analysts7 b. X6 ]7 c0 I6 m$ o
Final Note
5 I5 \, Q, U8 T0 F Chapter 3 - THE HYDRA HEADS OF TECHNICAL ANALYSISIs the Trend Really Your Friend?
+ i: u1 ?; j9 p. z9 t4 h Testing for Trends
/ x3 t! ^, `% \7 u* v$ z Streaks in Sports" q& Q" S3 a" C) H ~
The Market's Momentum Pendulum
# T7 q$ q7 l5 X9 j9 B K# b' \ Have Things Changed?
6 k/ L X8 O4 k3 p' U) {; _( G A Venerable Indicator of Great Ambiguity
8 p4 K" c1 w1 s1 c The Hydra's Arms+ R* q. ?, P/ _. d& c
If There Is Proof, We Cannot Find It. a4 j. x( U. M( _2 r
A Disagreement That Speaks Volumes
" O, }7 h+ A* g% Q$ `" U Shouldering Ahead
( O! L, _' h& |9 t3 r6 q; C% _1 { Hypothetical Head-and-Shoulders Pattern: g; k3 L9 O4 g3 r9 }3 t& S
Did You Really Expect a Straight Line to Point the Way?
8 e5 t% _. Y) A Propaganda Aspects of Technical Analysis
$ v6 }" V, w% w% ]0 G# W C Why Does the Myth Persist?
2 S9 w' k6 a1 M1 ~2 h; u A Technical Approach That Can Be Tested( W8 E% X; `& X: ~
Testing the VIX Indicator
. o7 j9 H8 T( _2 z( M7 E Conclusion, {& H" C. W" i) S- M
Epilogue: Ode to the Hydra of Trin* J' ?& u6 q1 r! p( [2 w- P) U3 x
Chapter 4 - THE CULT OF THE BEAR& p! u, \1 p4 O
Skepticism, Science, and Self-Esteem: A Multitrillion-Dollar Case StudyThe Critic's Story' u: E5 K: ]# O$ Y; K& z c/ _. Y
Comfort and Fear3 Y. e$ P# }' O1 W3 h
Taxonomy of the Oeuvre
) Z: p: Y7 h6 x. r7 S Chapter 5 - "WE ARE NUMBER ONE" USUALLY MEANS "NOT MUCH LONGER"The Tale of Icarus
% ~; b/ t, l: E6 B. W- v The Corporate Story Board) f6 s+ Q& |; v5 p: P: u
Cisco's Storyteller
) g, s- j: M; q: ?8 V( v) r The Executive Boast
% E3 X: B" ?3 ` Hubris and Chutzpa" o( F- N( v- |& F1 T
It Ain't Boasting If You Can Do It1 R9 H) H8 o M0 X1 M J
Hunting for Humility
( U `! P2 K% g/ r/ w So Much for Celebrity
* k7 Z r0 Y. u. n8 C; G Just What Is Humble?
/ |) f, u( m, d* w( T/ r The Skyscraper Indicator
* {4 }& O5 r) J$ U, C; U An Architect's Opinion
5 G( L0 A5 l& ]4 Z4 m$ W( L% j- L Best Use, or Boast?
( E- \: [9 K# s The Magazine Cover Indicator6 @ F' G$ q n
The Stadium Indicator! V4 S. a- K$ u8 R# C- ?) y( j
Making Mischief with the Books
; B C+ X9 \/ o! e4 F8 a+ f Lords on Boards
9 n- N8 `+ z& w6 H Summing It All Up in Iambic Pentameter
( \ W: A7 h1 D- M g( B' N5 w6 ?1 C Chapter 6 - BENJAMIN GRAHAM: MYTHICAL MARKET HEROIllusory Bargains. ~' X1 U2 [+ T% B: j- k" v b
Performance Test
% E1 f$ F2 m3 l6 t. h: P* b Value's Dismal Performance
1 @$ D1 D5 \( h) f2 _9 @ F5 z' Q Chapter 7 - NEWS FLASH: COMPUTER WRITES STOCK MARKET STORY!7 p8 ?5 E& Z9 f! D
Harm Done
; k8 z+ W& V2 T4 Y! H- p- w$ g2 K0 t The Market News-O-Matic
, @6 z: S- d" ?) l) m0 C Part Two - Practical Speculation* g3 H1 o) M2 g8 j$ c5 W# O9 t
"First, Build a Palace for Your King": A Survival Lesson from a Chess MasterChapter 8 - HOW TO AVOID SPURIOUS CORRELATIONSHow to Build a Scatter Diagram
* x* [1 w9 e: m+ I) N3 l A More Accurate Measure
9 P$ t. z" k" }- G, P A Workhorse Equation5 K* l J& N" `7 \( _+ n
Avoid Fallacious Conclusions
9 y% v8 x: Z/ X; T9 q The Curse of Specious Correlations7 U5 m7 J7 z1 w4 Y o% ?, u) y
Chapter 9 - THE FUTURE OF RETURNS
- @+ R( F7 E T1 ]+ [0 a The New Forecasters; {- X/ B; k) K+ s! s. J6 j
Second Opinion! g# P T3 K" a1 g$ F
Chapter 10 - THE PERIODIC TABLE OF INVESTINGBegin with the Facts
* P5 I5 J, o9 d8 E9 |( a A Classification System for Stocks
! X f# c) q; k9 m' p: A How Valuable Is Value Line?
[2 @0 F4 D6 _$ S* c% X9 [( i Value Line's Other System4 ?7 k9 G7 c; A6 e% Z; t/ P
The Critics
x2 Y3 s& P9 {2 @) `. [8 ~4 J, V* c6 I Mr. Hill Strikes It Rich6 U5 A1 q7 z( M9 n
A Mind Still Open after 58 Years
8 ?6 p' I3 m0 r) |* Y Chapter 11 - WHEN THEY SWING FOR THE FENCES, WE RUN FOR THE EXITSPlaying to the Crowd: F) z O/ o. }% l+ N
New Century, New Game/ N/ e, F; Y. m' e8 T3 N
Chapter 12 - BOOM OR BUST?7 {; j' [& g: k9 r2 x9 ~, ~
Promoting REITs/ E& D3 t) c" d9 M5 ]2 p
REITs versus Stocks: X) ~) ^; `7 [( b2 G
Interlocking Gears: Real Estate, Business Cycles, and StocksWe Make a Bearish Call
8 n, e, u& p' M" ^- m Wrath of the REIT Advocates- l# N3 I. l3 i H0 R7 ]
Untimely Optimism
6 r, x# z/ r) l* k The Ground Shifts" b7 |: b* C$ d% g/ H0 G
Chapter 13 - MARKET THERMODYNAMICS4 l* z) A5 X1 Z' b& f N! H" S
Market Experiments versus "Market Feel"
9 a3 c/ u0 ]9 j, E$ X: H5 x4 Y7 | Money as Energy
+ C$ D+ z& Y7 s, _( l1 ?$ `1 \ The First Law of Thermodynamics: Conservation of EnergyThe Second Law of Thermodynamics: EntropyConclusion
" U( [; P/ F; n- r Chapter 14 - PRACTICAL MARKET LESSONS FROM THE TENNIS COURTBefore the Game: T8 {% p" D& Q3 v
During the Game
. W6 J' ?; [+ o( ^' L, h5 M) u The Endgame
0 Z2 ]; r% i: C Q3 Y; } Chapter 15 - THE FINE ART OF BARGAINING FOR AN EDGETRADERS!' b H: x; } I' ~' F) d. S
Watch Your Costs3 L) V& Y9 E7 W) ?+ r5 y- Y
Pick Your Time and Place
5 \+ s, [ c, V, V: w Keep a Doleful Mien- N' t; j- T0 v6 L1 D0 b3 P
Information Is Valuable7 p" X- A( O' b
Sex and Bargains Do Not Mix. p5 y+ m" h B8 l \# Y7 Z& h/ L
Chapter 16 - AN AMIABLE IDIOT IN THE BIOTECHNOLOGY REVOLUTIONI Know This Crazy Guy ...% U" [; N* _* @
The Old Phase 26 i' s1 c" x, W- k& ^
The Trader's Apprentice
/ m$ Q! j2 e5 y The Invisible Victim
* ?2 r8 d* q7 x9 i The Trial
, Z3 ]; t# ?8 q/ } U& w9 { Profit from Asymmetry
, o$ f& V) I! u* A: Y0 w The Niederhoffer-Kenner-Zhang Drug TrialsChapter 17 - EARNINGS IMPOSTORS: d6 L1 n( y! x2 }. m, X
Cash Money
3 p9 I5 p0 T7 q3 n1 F9 D Buybacks- H8 q8 t) A* I5 p k; V
Dividends# F5 f3 ^. v5 } }) ]& g( o
Up with Dividends/ s" i9 s9 i5 O @" b
Dividend Yields and the Market q# ?' p5 V4 f3 I0 G
Cash Indicators1 ~$ X7 [9 g6 H0 V$ f
Cash Money
L& y* B0 J. d) |' h' F Empty Shelves, Rising Stock
' l5 K1 P0 h) G8 Z Compustat Confusion3 i* G8 g% Z# x( c" C: x( W
A Combination Tell
% @0 ~! D, s0 \6 I9 [$ f Chapter 18 - FINALE7 b; I1 S/ J5 |
Technical Indicators3 z( m7 n# }1 D/ p1 p8 N
Where Do We Find All Our Experts?. ` r7 g. J) \. P, ?9 s
More about Ever-Changing Cycles
1 o3 U' s" D( b9 l% B: ~: ]6 B& f, b3 O8 l Gone Fishing3 V" ~" w5 X4 D
How Can You Say Such Awful Things about Alan Greenspan?
@6 e4 D% k9 } q, k3 a0 F/ u What Book Do You Recommend?5 l6 i6 m! J9 U7 i) c
Beating Pods and Pessimism* y& ?/ n3 }" A% S
Hope-And Some Time-Tested Principles
" S- H: o% e$ _( C: L AFTERWORD: o; G6 |& Z. a. R7 K
NOTES" g% K }& ]3 [+ \; k
INDEX$ l9 F8 i( b" Y4 K" G4 N+ u
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